2008 Election and the Future of American Politics

Speaker: Dr Thomas E Mann, Senior Fellow, Governance Studies and The W. Averell Harriman Chair, The Brookings Institution

Date: Wednesday, 20 February 2008

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Lecture Synopsis

by Radhika Puri

America is going through one of the most exciting and volatile elections in the history of American politics and few people are better equipped to coherently explain its intricacies than Thomas E. Mann, Senior Fellow Governance Studies & the W. Averell Harriman Chair at the Brookings Institution. In an hour long talk, peppered with keen insight and humor, at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, Mr. Mann spoke of what made this election special.

“For one, the standings of the candidates have been constantly changing,” he noted. Mr. Mann cited the example of Republican candidate, John McCain as someone who was given up for dead last summer but came back to become the party’s presumptive presidential nominee. The Democratic Party also has been full of surprises. Senator Barack Obama, a young and relatively inexperienced candidate from the state of Illinois, had recently won his 10th straight victory in the primaries and caucuses defeating Hillary Clinton who was viewed as a frontrunner up until a few months back.

“Most Americans feel good about the election,” said Mr. Mann. “They view it as a triumph of voters over pundits and pollsters.”

According to the Brookings expert, it was also an exciting election due to the extent and modes of campaign fundraising undertaken by the candidates. Both Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton each garnered over US $100 million in 2007. Erstwhile Republican candidate Rudy Giuliani raised over US $60 million. The other significant development in this election was the large amount of small donations raised through the Internet, which Mr. Mann felt would continue to play a significant role in future elections. In early 2008 Obama was raising over US $1 million a day on the Internet.

However, Mr. Mann noted that the feel-good attitude toward the election contrasted sharply with the toxic public mood in country as a whole. Three-fourths of Americans feel that the country is on the wrong track. They fear that the economy is on the verge of a recession and they are very discouraged that costs of a very unpopular war in Iraq far outweigh the benefits. Over sixty per cent of Americans feel that American troops should be extricated from Iraq. Overall, there are record low levels of confidence in government and approval ratings of the President and Congress.

Mr. Mann further highlighted that a key criticism of this election made by pundits that voters are deciding this based on personalities and not issues was unfounded. Mr. Mann felt that looking closely at personalities was justified “since there is little differentiation on policies among the major Democratic candidates or among the Republican candidates. Policy differences between parties on the other hand are huge.” Thus, voters, in his view, will justifiably look at candidates during the nominating stage to determine who they are, the values they hold dear, their conceptions leadership, their electability and whether they will be good at governance.

However, Mr. Mann felt that the general election campaign would focus more on the stark contrast on policy views between the parties and their nominees. “Their ideological differences and their views of the world are very different,” he said “on a range of issues: health reform, energy security, climate change, immigration and how best to deal with terrorism.”

Looking ahead, Mr. Mann forecasted Democratic candidate Senator Barack Obama and Republican candidate Senator John McCain would most likely be the two last men left standing in the final battle for the highest office in America.

Mr. Mann noted that Senator Clinton has positioned herself as an experienced and accomplished leader who would return the country to the favorable conditions of her husband’s administration. However, he questioned the American public’s desire to go back to in time. “Sure, the economy was strong but public life was awful,” Mr. Mann recalled. “People were really going at each other. Americans acknowledge that it was a good time. But are they are looking to the future, not the past.”

“Obama offers to end the partisan bickering and to bring people together to work constructively on the big problems facing America,” he added

Mr. Mann acknowledged that while both Obama and McCain are strong candidates and men of character, he argued that the political environment made a Republican win unlikely. “If American history is any guide the Democrats will win in November,” he said. “We have never returned a party to power in the middle of a recession, not to mention a highly unpopular war. The only way the Republicans will win is if some untoward event changes the game or if the Democratic nominee comes to be viewed as utterly untrustworthy or unsuited for the job.”

Mr. Mann concluded: “The wind is at the back of the Democratic Party and its likely nominee, Barack Obama. And these winds can be expected to blow strongly through the November election.”